The impact of tariffs on cross-border transport between Mexico and the United States

Abstract

This research analyzes the possible effects of the increase in tariffs imposed by the United States on Mexican products, with a focus on cross-border transport. Due to the high trade dependency between the two countries, where more than 80% of Mexican exports to the United States are transported by land, any change in tariff policy has direct implications for logistics costs, operational efficiency, and business competitiveness. This study shows that such an increase would lead to higher freight costs, longer border crossing times due to stricter customs inspections, and a decline in the profitability of transport companies. Sectors such as the automotive industry would be particularly vulnerable due to the high integration of their supply chains at the regional level. The document also includes a SWOT and PESTEL analysis to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in response to this event, as well as the surrounding political, economic, social, and technological conditions. From a theoretical perspective, it is based on various international trade models that provide an understanding of the dynamics of trade in contexts of protectionism. The methodology used combines qualitative and quantitative approaches through document analysis, case studies, and review of official data. It is worth mentioning that the imposition of these tariffs could cause an economic slowdown, affect logistics chains, and reduce the volume of bilateral trade.